Arizona's population and related economic growth are set to grow quite significantly. This is the result of several recent local university and government studies.
According to a March 6, 2024, study by the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management and their Economic and Business Research Center (EBRC), Arizona is poised for growth during 2024.
The study, authored by Dr. George W. Hammond, who heads up the EBRC, the AZ economy is expected to show 1.9% job growth in 2024 and 2025. This is down from 2.1% in 2023. But personal income is set to rise 5.3% this year and 5.6% next year.
Much of this growth is based on the state's large population growth. This can be seen in the table above, showing 1.3% growth in the population each year for the next three years.
AZ Population Growth
Arizona now has over 7.5 million residents, as of July 2023, according to the AZ Office of Economic Opportunity, and cited in the EBRC study.
Most of the state's population growth is in the Phoenix area with over 5.1 million residents, as the table below shows.
Arizona's population growth includes over 108,000 migrating to the state on a net basis.
Moreover, the AZ Office of Economic Opportunity (OEO) has run projections, on where the state will be in the next several decades if these trends continue.
The Next Decade and a Half to 2040
For example, the AZ OEO has a low, medium, and high series of projections. The medium series shows that Arizona will have over 8.3 million residents by 2030.
That represents a cumulative growth rate of 10.3% from the end of 2023 (7.534 million) to 2030. This implies that Arizona will have net migration and natural birth/death growth of almost 800,000 (i.e., 778,892). On average that means the state's population will compound by 1.42% annually in the seven years to 2030.
Moreover, by 2040, 17 years from now, the AZ OEO projects in the medium series that there will be 9.206 million residents. The 9 million mark will be reached by 2038. That represents a growth of 1.672 million residents and a 22.2% cumulative rate. That represents an annual compound growth rate of 1.19% over the 17 years.
This implies that Arizona is set to have a huge growth and population growth over the next decade and a half.
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Mark R. Hake, CFA, writes articles on national and local news, stocks, and market events at Kiplinger.com, Barchart.com, Medium.com, and Newsbreak.com as well as GuruFocus and TalkMarkets.
Hake is the Chief Strategy Officer for AnaChart, a new sell-side stock analyst tracking service, and he is the Chief Strategy Officer at Foldstar Inc., a high-tech folding tech company.