Tropical Storm Julia formed in the southwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday morning and was expected to strengthen into a hurricane this weekend as it bears down on the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia and the coast of Nicaragua, forecasters said.
The storm was about 110 miles west of the Guajira Peninsula in northern Colombia, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in an 11 a.m. advisory. The Colombian government issued a hurricane warning for the islands of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina, meaning hurricane conditions were expected within about 36 hours.
The government of Nicaragua issued a hurricane watch, meaning a hurricane was possible within 48 hours, from Bluefields to the border with Honduras. The government of Honduras also told residents to brace for the powerful storm, issuing a tropical storm watch stretching west from the border with Nicaragua.
A storm is given a name after it reaches wind speeds of at least 39 mph. Julia had strengthened since Friday morning from a tropical depression as it churned westward.
Forecasters said the storm was expected to grow more powerful and become a hurricane before it reaches the Colombian islands of San Andrés and Providencia on Saturday night and the coast of Nicaragua on Sunday morning.
Heavy rainfall could set off flash flooding and mudslides in parts of Central America, which could get 5 to 10 inches of rain and up to 15 inches in isolated areas, the Hurricane Center said.
Julia formed just 10 days after Hurricane Ian made landfall in Florida. Ian barreled across the state as a powerful Category 4 storm, destroying neighborhoods and infrastructure, unleashing floods, wiping out power and killing at least 120 people, according to state and local officials.
Ian, which later regained hurricane strength before making landfall in South Carolina, followed a relatively quiet start to the Atlantic hurricane season, which runs from June through November. There were only three named storms before Sept. 1 and none in August, the first time that has happened since 1997.
Storm activity picked up in early September with Danielle and Earl, which formed within a day of each other, and Ian, which formed Sept. 26.
In early August, scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration issued an updated forecast for the rest of the season, which still called for an above-normal level of activity. In it, they predicted the season — which runs through Nov. 30 — could see 14 to 20 named storms, with six to 10 turning into hurricanes that sustain winds of at least 74 mph. Three to five of those could strengthen into what NOAA calls major hurricanes — Category 3 or stronger — with winds of at least 111 mph.
Last year, there were 21 named storms, after a record-breaking 30 in 2020. For the past two years, meteorologists have exhausted the list of names used to identify storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, an occurrence that has happened only one other time, in 2005.
The links between hurricanes and climate change have become clearer with each passing year. Data shows that hurricanes have become stronger worldwide during the past four decades. A warming planet can expect stronger hurricanes over time, and a higher incidence of the most powerful storms — though the overall number of storms could drop because factors like stronger wind shear could keep weaker storms from forming.
Hurricanes are also becoming wetter because of more water vapor in the warmer atmosphere; scientists have suggested storms like Hurricane Harvey in 2017 produced far more rain than they would have without the human effects on climate. Also, rising sea levels are contributing to higher storm surge — the most destructive element of tropical cyclones.
This article originally appeared in The New York Times .