By Rich Campbell
Welcome to the third edition of my monthly look at how the Oakland A’s 2021 season is unfolding.
Before looking at the results from games 40 through 76, let’s take a quick look at who on the A’s roster merits All-Star consideration, along with a key stat to explain their candidacies.
On the position-player front, the clear leader is first baseman Matt Olson, who seems to be a lock to make his first All-Star Game. His 2.7 fWAR trails only Vlad Guerrero amongst AL first-sackers. With 20 homers already this year, Olson would also be a good for the Home Run Derby.
Outfielder Mark Canha is third in the AL in fWAR for outfielders with 2.5, trailing only Cedric Mullins and Byron Buxton. He also is top five in runs scored in all of baseball.
Center-fielder Ramon Laureano is just behind Canha in fWAR at fourth in the Junior Circuit (2.3) and is slashing a robust .260/.340/.510.
Catcher Sean Murphy leads all AL catchers in fWAR with 2.4, which might surprise some fans. Mike Zunino (1.9) and Salvador Perez (1.7) are next in the AL pecking order.
Matt Chapman got off to a slow start offensively, but is playing his usual amazing defense. MLB.com writer David Adler has Chappy as his choice, noting his Outs Above Average of +12 towers over the next best third baseman in all of baseball, Manny Machado (+4). Defense matters and should be honored, right?
A’s starters with a shot at making the team are Chris Bassitt, who is 7-2 with a 1.8 fWAR and Sean Manaea, who is 6-3 with fWAR of 2.1. Both are in the top eight of AL pitchers fWAR.
The two relievers worthy of consideration are Lou Trivino, whose 12 saves are tied for fourth in the AL, and sports a 2.10 ERA. Middle reliever Yusmeiro Petit has a sparkling 7-1 record and leads MLB in appearances with 37.
No one should expect the A’s to have nine players in Denver in mid-July. But there is certainly no shortage of A’s players who should be considered.
Record Recap: Last we gathered, the A’s were 23-16 on May 14. Since then the A’s are 22-15, but have fallen into second place behind the red-hot Astros, who now sport the best record in baseball and are on a 10-game winning streak.
The A’s were 45-31 before they closed their series in Texas and headed to San Francisco for a weekend series versus the Giants, who have the best record in the NL. Fangraphs gives the Athletics a 63.4 per cent chance of reaching the playoffs, up from 51.5 on May 14.
Stat Nobody Saw Coming: James Kaprielian is 4-1 with a 2.86 ERA and 1.11 WHIP. Since joining the rotation on May 12, Kaprielian has pitched five or more innings in seven of eight starts and still has not given up more than five hits in a game. It looks like the A’s may have a legitimate rotation piece in the oft-injured 27-year-old rookie.
Roster Churn: There have been too many transactions to list here, but here are three key moves: 1) Luis Barrera added to MLB roster on May 18th and sent back down May 27th. In between, he made his MLB debut; 2) On May 21, Cam Bedrosian joined the big-league squad. He has made eight appearances with a 1.04 ERA; 3) Jesus Luzardo was optioned to AAA on June 21. Heading into the season, Luzardo was considered a key cog in the rotation and future star. He has a 6.87 ERA in 2021.
Regression To The Mean Update: April’s candidate, Elvis Andrus slashed .127/.167/.182 through the first 16 games. Since then his .258/.307/.339 is not going to get him All-Star consideration but is more in line with expectations.
May’s nominee was Seth Brown. At the time, his Fangraphs wRC+ of 133 in his 16 games ending May 13 was predictably unsustainable. His RC+ since then of 65 likely means less playing time and perhaps even a return to AAA Las Vegas.
This month’s candidate is Mark Canha. In his last 35 games, he has slashed .277/.387/.508 with 27 runs and 24 RBIs, pushing himself into All-Star consideration. If he can sustain his RC+ of 151 from this last six weeks, he will be collecting down-ballot MVP votes in October. The bet here is that he will not.
Old Guys Report: The older pitchers are chugging along. Sergio Romo has appeared in 15 games with a 2.84 ERA since May 14, while Yusmero Petit has appeared in 18 contests with a 6.50 ERA. As always, it’s a small sample-size alert when discussing relievers.
As for the older hitters … they have not been good since our last check in. Jed Lowrie and Mitch Moreland are still getting middle of the lineup but not producing enough to justify that placement. Lowrie’s paltry slash line since May 14 is .202/.300/.289 in 130 plate appearances while Moreland is at .224/.246/.310 in 61 plate appearances. Father Time is undefeated.
Coming Up: Starting with the weekend series versus the Giants, there are only five series until the All-Star Break: at San Francisco, home against the Rangers and Red Sox, and then roadies at Houston and Texas.
Rich Campbell is a Marketing Professor at Sonoma State University by day and A’s fan by night. He has previously been a sports business contributor at Forbes.com and his academic writing has appeared in Sport Marketing Quarterly. You can find him on Twitter @RichCampbellPhD.
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