By Sanchali Singh
(BURLINGTON, Vt.) A new study released by the University of Vermont found that cleaning up phosphorous in Lake Champlain would bring in tens of millions of dollars to the state’s economy.
“Quantifying the social benefits and costs of reducing phosphorus pollution under climate change” evaluates the benefits of phosphorus reduction on tourism, real estate and human health around key parts of the lake, the university said.
UVM reported that the study is the first published research that calculates “the return on investment of Lake Champlain phosphorus cleanup efforts.”
Phosphorous accumulates in the lake through runoff, which travels to Lake Champlain through tributary streams and rivers that drain the lands throughout the watershed, according to the Lake Champlain Basin Program. Phosphorous concentrations in the lake are highest in shallow water, often very warm in the summer, namely in the far ends of the Lake like Missisquoi and St. Albans bays in the north and in the South Lake.
Focusing on the lake’s Missisquoi Bay, which holds most of the northeastern end’s phosphorous, the study estimated that if phosphorous was prevented from entering Lake Champlain, local tourism would increase by $28.5 million and property sales by $11.2 million between now and 2050.
“While the cost of phosphorous cleanup is significant, researchers estimate that the cumulative benefits will begin to outweigh these costs as early as 2057,” UVM said. “After that, the net financial and social benefits of clean water and beaches will steadily increase for residents, business, and the State.”
The study focused only on one part of the lake based on limited data available. Researchers used Vermont EPSCoR's Integrated Assessment model, which only has Missisquoi Bay data, to evaluate water quality changes from 2016 to 2050 by reducing phosphorous and other climate change scenarios.
Reducing phosphorous levels in Lake Champlain would not only benefit ecosystems and marine life — the study projects that cleanup would decrease cases of ALS, or Lou Gehrig's disease.
The study published conservative estimates which could increase in higher-populated parts of the lake, like in Chittenden County where property values and tourism revenues are higher.
"These findings help make the case for greater investment in tackling our phosphorus problem to protect one of Vermont's most valued environmental amenities — Lake Champlain," said UVM lead author Jesse Gourevitch. "This study gives decision-makers the first formal cost-benefit analysis of cleaning up the lake, which will bring a suite of benefits to Vermonters."
Researchers’ next step will be to assess the cost-benefits of cleaning up other parts of the lake.
UVM said projections could reveal a shorter return on investments if “researchers can show the total benefits of clean water to Vermont — including real estate, tourism and health benefits from other parts of the lake — plus several other factors not in this study: recreational fishing, non-ALS-related health benefits, and many other cultural values that are difficult to quantify.”
Phosphorous in Vermont is mostly used in agriculture, as farmers use nutrient-enriched soils to produce crops. UVM noted how farmers often take the brunt of phosphorus reduction costs, but researchers suggested other ways, like "policies that support farmers' financial viability" and "examining the cost-effectiveness of interventions designed to reduce phosphorus."
Vermont also recently started a Vermont Pay-For-Phosphorus pilot program, which pays farmers for phosphorus reductions through a partnership between the state government and UVM.
"How do you put a price on clean water—or the mental health benefits that being out on the lake provides us?" said Gourevitch. "The benefits we calculate are clearly underestimated, and do not capture the diverse values that people have around Lake Champlain.”