Israel seems to have reached herd immunity or something close to it.
The White House is currently pushing incentives to get people vaccinated in the hopes of following suit.
Which naturally leads to a couple of questions.
Will Los Angeles ever reach Israel’s level of herd immunity?
Does it even matter?
What is Herd Immunity?
Herd immunity is a term that we have heard a lot in the past year.
Herd immunity is typically only reached through vaccination. Natural immunity generally is not enough.
Small Pox is an example of a disease we enjoy herd immunity from.
The flu, on the other hand, is not. Despite our best efforts, we still have a yearly flu season and require annual vaccination.
Israel
Last week Israel only averaged 15 new Covid cases per day.
That led the country to lift most of the remaining restrictions.
Businesses can now operate at full capacity. Residents also aren’t required to show proof of vaccination to enter restaurants, sporting events, or entertainment venues.
Even before this, Israel had few restrictions. Schools were fully open, and masks weren’t required outdoors. Israel has also allowed mass gatherings across the country.
The one remaining restriction is wearing masks in indoor public spaces.
How did Israel get here?
By vaccinating roughly 80% of its adult population. That’s around 60% of its citizens overall.
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is not far behind.
As of 6/2/2021, 5,307,819 L.A. residents have received at least one dose. That is 63.8% of residents 16 and older.
43% of L.A. residents overall are fully vaccinated.
Reaching the 60% threshold Israel has is possible but not likely.
That might not matter much, though.
Los Angeles is quickly returning to normal without herd immunity.
My Thoughts
The population of Los Angeles County (roughly 10 million) is very similar to Israel (roughly 9 million).
However, there are some significant differences.
First of all, Israel required proof of vaccination for many activities. That is something that Los Angeles seems unwilling to do.
Secondly, Israel is still largely closed to outside visitors. Los Angeles accepts a lot of visitors. Both from America and abroad.
The vaccination rate all over the U.S has been dropping. America is vaccinating less than 1.2 million per day, a far cry from the 3.3 million daily peak.
When you put all of that together, it seems unlikely we will reach herd immunity. At least not in the way Israel did.