(Spencer Platt / Getty Images)
(SEATTLE) If you attend or host a Thanksgiving dinner in Washington State this year, what are the odds someone at your table is infected?
About the same as "catching a bullet in Russian roulette."
That's according to Dr. Mike Famulare, a COVID-19 researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling, an organization whose work has been repeatedly cited by outlets including the New York Times.
Despite its dramatic phrasing, the quote has real numbers behind it - Famulare made the reference in a series of tweets about the risk of being in groups of different sizes, based on the current spread of COVID-19 in the state. Along with his position as a principal researcher, Famulare is listed as the co-chair of epidemiology at the organization, with a special focus on disease spread models.
By Thanksgiving, about 1% of Washington residents will have COVID-19, Famulare wrote.
"If [that] sounds low to you," Famulare wrote, "I ask how big is your group? Each person adds more risk."
In a group of 15, Famulare added, the risk adds up to about 1 in 6.
Famulare also shared a graph that showed the relative likelihood, for different group sizes, of someone present having COVID-19.
- In a group of 6, such as an intimate dinner, the odds appeared to be just under 10%
- In a group of 50, like at a bar, the odds are over 40%
- In a group of 75, such as at a grocery store, the chances are close to 2-to-1
- In a group of 200, such as at a church service, the odds are over 80%